Zero run car dilemma: the more you sell, the more you lose. The crown family has no surplus food | storm eye

Wechat automobile2022-05-14 19:33:05
Phoenix technology Produce
author | Shi Yue

edit | Ren Qing

WeChat editor | Li Jinyang


Core tips :
1. Zero run 4 Monthly sales exceed Wei Xiaoli , With 9087 Taiwan's achievements have reached the top, and new forces for building cars . High light can't cover large losses , For three years , The car is tired of running 48 Billion , The average loss of selling a car 6.5 ten thousand .
2. Insiders told Phoenix 《 Eye of storm 》, Zero car 3、4 The monthly delivery volume is satisfactory , Close to what you've accumulated before 2 Ten thousand undigested C11 Model orders are directly related .2021 At the end of the year, there are zero running cars 2.25 Thousands of copies C11 Order , Deliver only 3965 pen , It also means getting close to 2 Ten thousand orders , We should digest in the first half of this year .
3. At this stage, zero running is more about making up lessons , There was no real explosion . Focus on global self-study , But the three-year R & D investment is less than a quarter of that of Wei Xiaoli , The quality reliability of self-developed products is also questioned . Its self-developed chip Lingxin 01 Adopted 28nm Process technology , The computational power is only 4.2TOPS, but tesla  FSD Chip computing power Already reached 72TOPS, and Wei to ET7、 Zhiji L7 And many other intelligent models have been equipped with hundreds of TOPS Level chip NVIDIA Orin X.


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Delivery challenges :“ How snakes swallow elephants ”

5 The new power of making cars on the moon 4 Monthly sales , Zero car 4 Monthly total delivery 9087 platform , Achieve continuity 13 The year-on-year growth in the last month exceeded 200%, Win the new power of car making and sell the crown , First implementation “ Lead the race ”. Its 3 The monthly delivery volume also exceeded the 10000 Taiwan mark , achieve 10059 platform .

by comparison , Xiao peng car 4 Monthly delivery 9002 platform , Year-on-year growth 75%; Wei Lai only delivers 5074 car , No. 4 , Ideal delivery 4167 car , Rank fifth . And in third place , It's Nezha car, which is in the second echelon with zero running car and counterattacks the main front from the first echelon , Delivery volume is 8813 platform .

“ Wei Xiaoli ” Abdication “ Zero run ” With Nezha , The core reason , It focuses on the medium and high-end market “ Wei Xiaoli ” The impact of this round of epidemic is even more serious , The three companies have suffered from production suspension and production restriction to varying degrees .

Yi Xiaopeng P7 For example , The car is equipped with 5 A high-precision millimeter wave radar 、12 An ultrasonic sensor 、4 An autopilot look around camera 、10 Including an autopilot high perception camera 31 A sensor , So many components , Naturally, it is more vulnerable to the influence of the supply chain —— According to Li Bin's original words, it is : A car can't produce a single part .

The first quarter of this year , The total cumulative delivery of Zero run is 21579 platform , Year-on-year increase 410%.

in fact , Even though 4 Month on month delivery fell , But for the first time, he became the sales champion of new forces , It is of great significance for zero running cars , Especially considering , The latter is in shock IPO The key node of .

This year, 3 month 17 Japan , Zero run automobile officially submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange ,“ Zero run “ And “ Which zha ” In a fierce competition , See who can become the successor first “ Wei Xiaoli ” After that, the fourth new car making force entering the capital market .

Industry insiders are interested in Phoenix technology 《 Eye of storm 》 Pointed out that , Zero car 3、4 Monthly delivery volume increased significantly , It may be directly related to some of its previously accumulated undigested orders .

The prospectus submitted by Zero run car shows , By 2021 end of the year , Zero car ownership 2.25 Thousands of copies C11 Order , Only one of them was delivered at that time 3965 Orders , It also means getting close to 2 Ten thousand orders , Digestion should be carried out in the first half of this year .

People in the industry think , The reason for keeping more stock orders is that the production capacity can not keep up .“ last year 4 month 30 Japan , Zero run vehicle has obtained the production qualification of new energy vehicles , in other words , Zero run the actual time to build the car , But it's only a year .”

Phoenix technology recently conducted a random interview with some potential users of electric vehicles , Found that nearly half of consumers , So far, I haven't heard of zero running cars .

In a way , This is also one of the embarrassing situations faced by the Zero run car with an inspirational script —— Although the short-term delivery volume has been greatly improved , But on the whole , From product 、 brand , Or the appeal of the founder himself , Zero run car wants to catch up with Wei Xiaoli in a real sense , There is still a very clear gap .


Highlights and losses

Zero run car was founded in 2015 year 12 month , Then security giant Dahua shares (002236.SZ) Vice chairman and CTO( Chief technical officer )、 Jiang Ming is also the co-founder of Zhu Dahua , United Dahua Co., Ltd. and its main founders founded Zero run automobile in Hangzhou , When Dahua Co., Ltd. was established 、 The shareholding ratios of Fu Liquan and Zhu Jiangming are 33%、32%、20%.

With the strength and background of Dahua shares , And with the help of the east wind of new energy development , The financing process of Zero run automobile is relatively smooth —— According to sky eye data , Zero run car from 2018 year 1 Month start Pre-A Round of funding , to 2021 year 8 month C2 The wheel 7 In round financing , Jointly raised funds 118.66 One hundred million yuan , Investors include Sequoia China 、 China medium car 、 Hangzhou state owned assets 、 Shanghai Electric, etc .

since 2019 From the year onwards , Zero run car has launched three models , Including pure electric car running S01、 Pure electric mini car T03 And pure electric medium SUV C11 Three models .2019 year 7 month , Zero run car delivers the first mass production model S01,2020 year 5 Month delivery T03,2021 year 10 Month delivery C11.

In terms of profitability , According to the prospectus of Zero run automobile ,2019-2021 The annual revenue of zero running cars is 1.17 One hundred million yuan ,6.31 One hundred million yuan ,31.32 One hundred million yuan ,2020 Years and 2021 Year on year growth 439.32% and 396.35%, Every year has achieved leapfrog growth .

2019-2021 Three years , The total revenue of zero running cars reached 1.169 One hundred million yuan 、6.313 One hundred million yuan, 31.32 One hundred million yuan , The cumulative total income in three years has reached 38.802 One hundred million yuan .

But under the high light , Is an unavoidable loss ——2019-2021 Within three years , The losses attributable to equity holders of Zero car during the year reached 9.011 One hundred million yuan 、11 One hundred million yuan, 28.457 One hundred million yuan , The accumulated total loss in three years is as high as 48.468 One hundred million yuan . After adjustment , The net losses in the same period are about 8.10 One hundred million yuan 、9.35 Million dollars 26.29 One hundred million yuan .


Persistent loss , The book data of zero running cars are not very good-looking . By 2021 year 12 month 31 Japan , The total current assets of zero running cars are about 89.55 One hundred million yuan , Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year are about 43.38 One hundred million yuan , This number , Far below “ Wei Xiaoli ” By 2021 At the end of the year 554 Billion ,435.44 Billion ,501.60 Billion cash reserves .

Besides , New energy vehicle enterprises are an important development indicator —— Gross margin , Zero running car although from 2019 Year of -95.7% Greatly improved to 2021 Year of -44.3%, But distance “ become a regular worker ” There is still a big gap . As a contrast , tesla 2021 The gross profit margin of the overall automobile business in is 29.3%, And Wei Xiaoli also reached 20.1%、12.5% And 21.3%.

Revenue growth 、 But the range of net loss has expanded year by year , first , That's what zero running car has always emphasized “ Global self-study ”.


Global self-study , It's hard to get results

Zero car prospectus mentioned , Zero run automobile claims to be the only one in China with “ Global self-study ” New forces capable of making cars , At present, the new forces of car making in the market are mainly doing “ The whole stack is self-developed ”.

The main difference between the two is ——“ Global self-study ” It is through independent research and development from hardware to software ,“ The whole stack is self-developed ” Is to hand over the hardware to a third party , Car companies only develop applications and algorithms .

stay 2021 year 11 At the Guangzhou Auto Show held in September , Zhu Jiangming, the chairman of Zero run automobile, also talked about the implementation of Zero run automobile for many years “ Global self-study ” Explain in detail , With particular emphasis :“ Through global self-study , To gain their core competitive advantage .”

Think of something earlier 2021 year 7 month , Zhu Jiangming is still running zero 2.0 Make bold remarks at the Strategy Conference —— Zero running car “3 Annual surpass tesla ”、“4 Launched in 2013 8 New car ”、“2025 Annual sales reached 80 Thousands of cars ”, It's not hard to see. , Global nature seems to have given the founder, who has always been famous for his mouth and gun, great confidence .

However, the industry generally does not buy Zhu Jiangming's heroic words , The main reason is , Compared with a widely recognized expert in the field of security , Zhu Jiangming is more like a layman in the field of car making .

The most classic case is , Zhu Jiangming once thought that cars produced can be sold as long as they pass the inspection at the China automobile Center , But for car companies, we need “ Production qualification ” and “ Product qualification ” I don't know anything about . This leads directly to Zero steam escape vehicle The factory invested more than one billion yuan in Jinhua cannot be put into operation , until 3 After year Zero car Acquisition of Fujian Fuda Automobile Industry Co., Ltd , After getting the qualification , The problem was solved .

Through this matter , It also extends more “ joke ”—— Due to the pending qualification issue , Zero car Can only find the Changjiang automobile OEM to produce its first model Zero run S01, But in the media test drive organized later , The test drive vehicle was not licensed due to Zero run , A media editor was stopped by the traffic police while participating in the test drive , And was found to use fake temporary cards , The media editors who led to the test drive were faced with 12 Punishment of points and detention , For a time, it caused an uproar in public opinion .

Run at zero C11 In the group interview after the press conference , A media has thrown out a sharp question —— Dahua has advanced artificial intelligence, vision and other technologies , But why zero operation C11 The level of intelligent driving is still slightly lower than that of industry leaders ?

Regarding this , Zhu Jiangming did not respond positively , But the answer is to some extent obvious —— Dahua's technical advantages in the field of security , It can really meet the machine vision required by zero running cars 、 Technical requirements for reversing radar, etc , But the problem is , Build a car , Not just cameras and sensors .

Regarding this , Industry analyst Yu shengmei further pointed out , The Zero run feature is the technical gene , The field of security is partial B Mid-market , Cross border car building is equivalent to entering the market facing consumers C Mid-market , Zero run can achieve rapid sales growth, which is worthy of recognition , But for products 、 Market insight still has room to improve .

stay “ Global self-study ” Under the premise of , Zero run cars need more R & D investment .

But the truth is ,2019-2021 Zero car R & D investment in , They are just 3.58 One hundred million yuan ,2.89 One hundred million yuan ,7.40 One hundred million yuan —— It's hard to believe , In Zhu Jiangming's mouth “ Drive assembly 、 In the field of battery, we have taken electric cells from outside , Develop to make your own module 、Pack and BMS( Battery management system ), Car engine system 、 Cloud platform 、 Intelligent driving has realized self-development ” Zero running car , Its R & D investment is less than a quarter of that of Wei Xiaoli , Not even as good as 2018 I didn't start selling cars in , The R & D expenditure of the latter year is 7.9 One hundred million yuan .

With its self-developed chip Lingxin 01 For example , The latter uses 28nm Process technology , Its computational power is only 4.2TOPS, Compared to Tesla FSD Chip 72TOPS There is a huge difference in computing power , And the latest Wei Lai ET7、 Zhiji L7 And many other intelligent models have been equipped with hundreds of TOPS Level chip NVIDIA Orin X.


Besides , Zero running car in 4 month 25 China's first mass production available CTC Battery chassis integration technology , It is also pointed out that there is some exaggerated propaganda .

Some people in the industry to Phoenix Technology 《 Eye of storm 》 Express , Zero run launched this time CTC technology , Strictly speaking, it should be called MTC More appropriate , Because Zero run is not like Tesla , Put... Directly 4680 Cylindrical cells are arranged on the chassis , Instead, the cell is coated to a certain extent , Then put the integrated battery module on the chassis .

By comparison , More technical compromise , The advantage is that it is more convenient for mass production and maintenance , But the disadvantage is that there is no Tesla extreme in space saving , And due to the lack of traditional battery pack cover , The design requirements for thermal runaway protection of cockpit are also higher .


According to Zhu Jiangming's plan , The Zero run car program is in 2023 The lidar scheme will be put into operation at the end of the year ,2024 Realize full scene automatic driving technology , Realize the anti surpassing and leading of Tesla . This is even more problematic , Where does the money come from ?

Chip design and production , The development of algorithms , The landing of new technologies , Basically does not exist “ Spend less money on bigger things ” The possibility of . Zero run car wants to use global self-development to “ Once and for all ” Good ,“ Feed on illusions ” Let it be , The lack of overall investment is a reality , It is also very likely to become a constraint on its long-term development .

Besides , The reason why other new energy vehicle enterprises choose the whole stack self-study , In essence, it is also based on the fact that the new energy vehicle track is still in the walking stage , In order to shorten the R & D cycle 、 The reasonable behavior of accelerating mass production rate to quickly seize the market . Integrate the views of many professionals in the industry , The importance of global self-study of zero running cars may be over exaggerated , It could be making cars “ A layman ” Zhu Jiangming made another decision mistake .


“ Lose money and make money ” How long can it last

At present, new energy subsidies are coming to an end , Under the environment of rising raw material prices , Zero running continues to rely on the walking volume of low-cost models , It means that the maximum probability will go to the situation of selling more and losing more . This makes , I had hoped that T03 To spread out the cost , Route of creating scale effect , It doesn't work for zero running cars .

Zero run car mentioned in the prospectus , The future Zero run will focus on 15 Ten thousand yuan to 30 10000 yuan of China's medium and high-end mainstream new energy vehicle market . But the first problem facing the Zero run is , It is still a long way from the middle and high end .

Zero run 2021 Of the models delivered in , Yes 39149 They all sell for no more than 10 Ten thousand yuan , Meager profits A00 Stage trolley T03, The proportion of sales is as high as 89%.

Auto analyst Zhang Xiang pointed out that ,T03 The reason for the best-selling is the accurate positioning A0 The car market segment .“ Because there are few models , At that time A0 The car is a blue ocean , And Zero run T03 It's exquisitely made , All the functions should have ,T03 With high cost performance , Pried open the market .”

“ Lose money and make money ” There is a price , according to 2021 Year Zero run 43748 Car sales calculation , On average, it's about... Per unit 6.5 Loss of ten thousand yuan , Some people on the Internet describe zero running “ Sell one and lose one ”.

This is actually the biggest problem of zero running cars —— The overall development is seriously unbalanced , And low end 、 Neither side of the medium and high-end market has really stood firm .

Besides , Like many new energy vehicle enterprises , Zero run cars have also encountered various disputes along the way ,T03 Pixel level simulation Smart Plagiarism controversy , Accusations of exaggerated publicity of its self-study level ,2020 year 5 month 200 More than zero runs S01 The first batch of car owners' collective rights protection Events , The car owner listed four categories of quality problems , The failure of vacuum booster pump is involved 、 Battery overheat protection 、 The main control screen is black 、 The vehicle stopped for no reason .

4 month 24 Japan , Just run the car at zero CTC The day before the Technology Conference , And Zero run C11 The owner disclosed on the Internet that , I picked up the new car on the same day and made a Zero run C11 There are many scratches and defects on the body , And the after-sales refused to return the car on the ground that it had been insured , It only means that the foot pad can be given as compensation . besides , Some netizens also post on platforms such as vehicle quality network , Said he picked up the new car C11 There is obvious paint spray on the connection between the front cover and the body , And the connection on the right side of the front hood is higher than the body 3mm And the co pilot a Loose buckle of column lining plate and other problems .

Facing the future , The plan of zero running car is to make the whole model . But all kinds of models , On the contrary, it may make it difficult for each model to stand out . stay SUV In the field , BYD song Plus DM-i、 The tang dynasty DM, Which zha U、 Xiao peng G3 And other popular products , In the field of car running , There are also BYD Qin Plus、 Xiao peng P5、 GAC AION S Wait, opponent , At present, there is no Zero run with strong brand advantages and technical strength , Want to stand out , Not easy .

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