April changes, electric car Jianghu chaos

Automobile evaluation2022-05-14 19:30:39



writing word | only   only

set up meter  | Little cosmos



stay In interconnected systems , A small initial energy may produce a chain reaction , That is, take one hair and move the whole body . According to public data ,4 The sales volume of new forces of car making fell month on month , No enterprise has delivered 10000 vehicles . 


Under the dual pressure of the epidemic and the overseas situation , The automobile industry has been hit hard one after another .

Many raw materials continue to rise, putting pressure on the cost side , Terminal sales is facing the dilemma of vehicle delivery and suspension , And the lack of supply chain and logistics also makes many auto enterprises present “ No car to build ” The situation of .

In the short term , The automobile industry Difficult to return “ Prosperous period ”.   picture   
In the Middle East: , For the new car building forces that are still in the growth stage and have weak anti risk ability , This year's 4 Month is like ushering in a “ pollen ”.

Monthly production and sales report , Equivalent to the monthly test of the automobile market . But unlike previous sales 、 The difference between the delivery volume competition is , Now it is no longer as simple as looking at which brand sells well , It depends on which brand has fallen less .   
Under the nest , Ann has finished her eggs . 


Compare with 3 month 4 Car companies at the same time “ Break ten thousand ” The performance of the , Most car companies are deeply involved in shutdown 、 Supply chain shortage 、 Transportation disruption and other crises , Obviously, it has been revealed in advance 4 Dismal delivery in January .

In recent days, , With the new forces of car building drying out the delivery report card one after another , It can be seen that the new forces of car making originally located in the front line are obviously lagging behind , It exposed the weakness of car building recruits in car building foundation . 


From the published data, we can see , All the leading enterprises of new forces showed a sharp decline . among , Weilai automobile, once the sales champion of new forces , Both year-on-year and month on month decline .4 The monthly delivery volume is 5074 car , Chain down 49.18%, A fall 21.56%.

Xiao peng car 4 The monthly delivery volume is 9002 car , Chain down 41.6%, Year-on-year growth 75%.

Just by ideal ONE Ideal for a car to fight alone 4 The monthly delivery volume is 4167 car , The month on month decline was the largest among the three , achieve 62.23%, Year on year decline 24.77%.   picture   
It is worth noting that , GAC AIAN 4 Monthly sales volume is 10212 car , Though with 3 In the 20317 Compared with the sales volume of cars, it is almost halved , But year on year growth 23%, Become the only car company breaking 10000 this month , And won the sales crown of new forces of car making for two consecutive months . 


It comes from the strong enterprise strength of GAC group , Gac-ea has a global supply chain system .

Especially after the formal independence of the brand , Gac-e'an has once again deepened the integration and layout of the industrial chain , Have batteries including magazine 、 Super speed battery 、 Three original battery technologies including sponge silicon negative battery , therefore , Compared to car building recruits More risk resistant .   picture   
Besides , Although not as good as GAC's achievements and fame , However, the zero running car based on the self-study of the whole region is also on this month's list A black horse .

Zero run 4 The monthly delivery volume is 9087 car , Although it fell month on month 9.7%, But compared with the same period last year, it rose by 228%, Pressure “ Wei Xiaoli ” Second on the list , It has aroused a lot of heat and attention in the whole industry . 


Also as a car enterprise in the Yangtze River Delta , The reason why Zero run can run well , Thanks to its global self-study , And in the choice of supply chain, multi supply enterprises 、 Multi regional planning , Make its production rhythm more stable , It has effectively improved the impact of the epidemic on supply chain guarantee .   picture   
Objectively speaking , The decline in sales volume of new forces of car making is related to the epidemic in Shanghai , Especially the automobile enterprises whose production base is in the Yangtze River Delta , Even more, when the general environment is not optimistic, snow adds frost .

But it's not hard to see , Although the new forces of car building are good at making efforts in the direction of automobile intelligence , Compared with traditional automobile manufacturers , The base of car building technology is still weak . 


If the times want to abandon you , I can't even say hello . For the new forces , You can't lie in peace , We must learn to stand against the wind . 


First quarter , Many car companies have seen sales decline , And the first month of the second quarter , The trend is still becoming more and more obvious . Where to go this year , For many car companies , Or a severe test . And those new forces in the tail that haven't even bravely announced the delivery volume , Obviously, we will face a new round of reshuffle .   

The sales volume data is a fact that cannot be changed , But it's just an intuitive representation . Under the influence of the epidemic , The pace of marketing and production has been disrupted , The business doesn't work properly . And the socio-economic impact of the epidemic , Continuously weakening the foundation of users' consumption power .

Comprehensive factors , the 2022 And 2020 Years are significantly different , Want to usher in the second quarter of the deep V Growth will be more difficult , Naturally, the recovery of sales will not be like 2020 As easy as in . 


At the marketing level , As an experiential commodity , Car companies have frequent business activities in cities , Rich forms of marketing , High intensity offline publicity , So that the consumption value can be significantly improved .

And due to the development of the epidemic , Car companies are now mostly in the form of online publicity , Not only is it not as intuitive as seeing real cars offline , Nor is it as strong as the consumption impact brought by offline activities , It is difficult to stimulate the enthusiasm of consumers .   picture   
Take Beijing auto show as an example , In accordance with past practice , Beijing auto show will usher in the release of heavy new cars by major auto enterprises , But due to the delay of the auto show , That had to postpone the release , Or publish it online .

Many potential consumers have no chance to see the real car at the scene , Compared with previous years, the consumption boom brought by the auto show is even more impossible . 


However, the more core issue is the consumption ability , Whether the automobile market is prosperous or not , Finally, it will fall back on the fundamental element of consumption power . According to the National Bureau of Statistics 《 China Statistical Yearbook 2021》 From the data shown in , Chinese society is now 90% People's monthly income is 5,000 Yuan of the following ( Individual income tax exemption ), The only people with a monthly income of more than 10000 are 7,110 ten thousand people , About 5%.

That means , Although the population base is huge , But the people who really have the ability to consume , May not be as good as 2 Billion .   picture   
  Besides ,2012 to 2020 year , China's total retail sales of social consumer goods have an average annual growth of 8.4%, and 2020 to 2021 year , The average growth rate is only 3.9%, The growth rate of consumption shows a downward trend . The total retail sales of automobile consumer goods is 10739 One hundred million yuan , Compared with the lower 0.3%.

therefore , Due to the change of users' consumption ability and consumption concept , Maybe it will be longer .

How to balance the two contradictory elements of consumption ability and consumption desire , It will be an important part of the new product planning of automobile enterprises .   
The darkest hour is coming , People can be forced to calm down and sort out . Behind the pain is thinking and exploration , Whether it's a sudden change in the pattern of new forces , Or the scenery of Wei Xiaoli is no longer , All of a sudden , In fact, there are traces to follow , The epidemic strikes and warns automobile enterprises of their omissions in the industrial chain in the most lethal way .   picture   
  Although the pressure changes , It's also the driving force .

Back to the question mentioned at the beginning of the article , To block the domino effect , There are only two ways , First, stop the collapse from the source , Second, take the first card that hasn't fallen yet .

The automobile industry affects the national economy , As an important economic pillar and damaged industry , While the government promotes the resumption of work and production of the automobile industry , Also trying to boost car consumption , Take multiple measures to promote the stable development of the automobile industry , Get back on track quickly .



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