Soaring oil prices: apple, the gold sucking beast, is unable to compete with Saudi oil tyrants

Sina science and technology Zheng Jun

The US stock market has fallen for days , Technology stocks fell heavily . Apple has also lost the throne of the world's most valuable listed company . The US stock market closed Thursday , Consumer electronics industry overlord apple fell 2.7%, Market value falls to 2.31 Trillions of dollars . Since this year, 1 At the beginning of the month 3 After the trillion dollar mark , Apple's market value has shrunk by more than 23%, This month, the cumulative decline 10%.

The trend of other technology giants is also depressed . once “ Two trillion dollar Club ” Several members of , Microsoft Cumulative decline this year 25%, The market value has fallen to 1.9 Billion dollars ; Amazon The cumulative decline 38%, The market value has shrunk sharply to 1.07 Trillions of dollars ; Google The current market value is 1.46 Trillions of dollars .Facebook parent company Meta This year is even lower 45%, Once a trillion dollars, the market value is now almost halved .

In the gloom of American technology stocks , Saudi Aramco, the Saudi national oil company, has a promising future . The share price of this stock has continued to rise this year 28%, At present, the market value exceeds 2.4 Trillions of dollars . Saudi Aramco therefore 2020 Surpassing apple for the first time since , Once again become the listed company with the highest market value in the world .

This change is not surprising . Here is a river of blood , Technology stocks continued to fall sharply , That's high global oil prices , The oil giant is full of money . This year, 3 month , After the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine , The global oil price once hit a barrel 139 The dollar 14 Year high . Inflationary pressure from rising oil prices prompted the US central bank to raise interest rates sharply , Direct pressure on the stock market to plunge .

Saudi Aramco is not an ordinary oil company , It is difficult to measure by the fundamentals of ordinary listed companies , A simple comparison between apple and Saudi Aramco makes no sense . Behind this company is the kingdom of Saudi Arabia , The Saudi government holds more than 98% Shares of . Saudi Aramco is the world's largest oil company , It is also the oil company with the largest proved reserves , It has the world's largest onshore and offshore oil fields .

At present, the top 20 companies with the highest market value in the world , American companies occupy 15 mat . Among the top ten enterprises in the world by market value , Including seven technology companies ( Six American companies ). TSMC With 4550 US $100 million at number one 10 position , It is also the world's most valuable chip company . tencent With 4290 US $100 million at number one 12 position , It is the Chinese Internet enterprise with the highest market value . Maotai in China 3279 Billion U.S. dollars, ranking the first in the world 21 position , It is the world's most valuable liquor enterprise .

and , Saudi Aramco is just “ Recapture ” The company with the highest market value glory .2019 year 12 month 11 Japan , Saudi Aramco is listed on the Saudi stock exchange , financing 256 Billion dollars , It's broken 2014 year Ali Listed in the US 218 $ IPO Financing record . First day of listing , Saudi Aramco's closing market value is as high as 1.88 Trillions of dollars , Surpass apple to become the world's most valuable enterprise .

But as the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak , Countries around the world are in a standstill to curb oil demand , OPEC production reduction agreement talks broke down , The international oil price once plummeted to negative value , Saudi Aramco's performance has also been dragged down , Leading to a decline in market value . That year 7 month , Apple with 1.84 The market value of trillions of dollars exceeds that of Saudi Aramco ( At that time, the market value was 1.76 Trillions of dollars ).

Last year, the global economy gradually recovered , Another surge in oil prices has also given Saudi Aramco a solid boost .2021 Saudi Aramco's net profit increased by 124%, from 490 Billion dollars soared to 1100 Billion dollars ; Revenue growth over 50%, from 2050 $billion to 3600 Billion dollars . As a state-owned entity , Saudi Aramco is also an important source of revenue for the Saudi government . It is worth mentioning that , Saudi Aramco 2021 The annual net profit is higher than that of apple (946.8 Billion dollars ) It's higher 16%. As oil prices rise , The gold sucking giant Apple faces the Saudi oil tyrant , Can only be willing to bow down .

In fact, the stock market has ups and downs , The trend is difficult to predict .“ The world's most valuable enterprise ” The false name itself is not important , In the last ten years , Both Microsoft and Saudi Aramco have occupied this position many times . But energy stocks overwhelm technology stocks , But it is a wind vane reflecting the overall economic trend .

Before Apple reached the top , The company with the highest market value in the world is originally an energy company .2011 year 8 month 11 Japan , Officially surpass Apple's market value ExxonMobil , With 3467 For the first time, it has become the world's largest enterprise by market value , Since then, he has occupied this throne for a long time . The year before 5 month , Apple with 2269 The market value of US $billion exceeds that of its old rival Microsoft , Officially took the top position in the science and technology industry .

At that time Apple's CEO Or jobs . Although jobs led apple from the brink of bankruptcy to the top of the world , Witnessed this glorious moment , But he himself had a recurrence of cancer , I can't keep working anymore , Had to 2011 year 8 Officially resigned in January CEO Position , Say goodbye to the world more than a month later . Apple has entered the cook era .

The reason why Apple can surpass Microsoft in market value , Become the new overlord of the technology industry , And even become the world's most valuable enterprise , It is thanks to the mobile Internet era opened by Steve Jobs . stay 2007 Launched in 2013 iPhone after ,2010 Global intelligence mobile phone Shipments soared 74%, It accounts for a quarter of the total mobile phone shipments , The rising momentum is unstoppable .

Apple relies on iOS Ecological platform and iPhone, Stand firmly at the top of the mobile Internet industry . Although their market share is only 18%, But took more than 90% of the profits of the smartphone industry . In the next ten years , Apple's market value has increased from 3000 More than $100 million continues to soar , Once a breakthrough 3 Trillions of dollars , The outlook for oil companies is highly tied to oil prices .

2018 end of the year , Microsoft's market value also briefly surpassed Apple , At that time, the market value of the two giants was still 8000 Billion level . At that time, Apple was facing performance difficulties : Nearly 60% of the revenue contribution iPhone Sales fell , No longer even announce product sales , The share price once fell by more than 20%. But Microsoft has a smooth transition because of cloud services , Become the favorite of the market .

With iPhone Sales are growing again , Apple has come out of its low performance , Share prices also began to soar again . Although the outbreak of the COVID-19 once reduced Apple's market value by more than 4000 Billion dollars , But with the Fed's water easing policy , And the strong demand for consumer electronics brought about by the epidemic , Apple's share price has started to grow strongly again , Until this year 1 month 4 The daily market value exceeded 3 Trillions of dollars . from 2 Trillion dollars to 3 Trillions of dollars , Apple only uses 16 Months time .

look , Apple was in good shape . Fourth quarter , Apple's performance hit a new high , The revenue in a single quarter is as high as 1239 Billion dollars , Year-on-year growth 11%; Net profit 346 Billion dollars , Year-on-year growth 20%. And the revenue of all businesses increased strongly , Last year's iPhone 13 The series continues to sell well , The overall gross profit margin exceeds 40%.

However , No matter how good the performance is, it can't stop the changing environment . Last few months , Apple's share price continues to fall , It is more dragged down by the macro-economy and the overall environment . Inflation in the United States remains high , The rise in oil prices is the most critical factor . This year, 4 Month America CPI rose 8.3%, Hit a 40 year high . Under severe inflationary pressure , The Federal Reserve raised interest rates at the beginning of this month 50 BPS , Such a large margin is 22 For the first time in years ; The US stock market also began to turn around and fall .

The Federal Reserve accelerated the pace of monetary tightening , It will also trigger a chain reaction in other countries , Urge major central banks to follow up interest rate hikes , Drive the rise of global interest rates , Leading to a sharp decline in market risk appetite , Drive risk aversion to heat up , The stock market has become the most direct barometer , Investors are dumping stocks that are considered risky and foam , Cryptocurrency is not immune .

Technology stocks, which have led the rise in the US stock market in the past two years, have become the biggest in this round of adjustment “ The victim ”. NASDAQ The index has fallen nearly this year 30%, by comparison Dow Jones The index is down 14.5%, The standard & poor's 500 The index is down 19%. The federal reserve 5 month 6 Three trading days after the interest rate hike on the day , The overall value of the technology stock market has shrunk 1 Trillions of dollars , Apples are among them “ contribution ” More than 2000 Billion dollars .

On the other hand , The global economic outlook is uncertain , The global inflationary pressure caused by the war between Russia and Ukraine , In particular, the rising cost of living caused by soaring oil prices , It will also affect people's consumption expectations , Affect the demand of the consumer electronics industry . And over the past two years , Apple has been facing the impact of supply chain problems caused by the epidemic . Apple expects revenue to fall in the second quarter of this year 40 Billion -80 Billion dollars , The impact may be higher than that in the first quarter .

At a time when the global economic outlook is uncertain and oil prices are high , Energy is clearly the strongest stock . The World Bank expects , Supply interruption caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine , The price of Brent crude oil in the North Sea is expected to remain at... Per barrel this year 100 More than $ , set up 2013 The highest oil price since . But Saudi Aramco CEO Nasser remained calm , Because the continued rise in oil prices will push qualcomm The cargo swells , In turn, it will curb the demand for oil consumption .

Energy stocks are undoubtedly the biggest beneficiaries of the rise in global oil prices . Against the backdrop of the overall decline in US stocks , The standard & poor's 500 Index energy stocks soared 40%. ExxonMobil, the largest oil giant in the United States, increased its revenue in the first quarter 53%, achieve 880 Billion dollars , Net profit growth 101%, achieve 54.8 Billion dollars . ExxonMobil's share price has risen this year 33%, Current market value up to 3640 Billion dollars , Ranked No. 1 in the world 16 position , Also second only to Saudi Arabia beauty The second largest oil company . Yes , ExxonMobil's current market value is still 2011 Annual level .


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2022-05-14